世界杯官方app survey finds many San Antonio voters undecided on mayoral race

MARCH 4, 2025 — A new voter survey from the 世界杯官方app Center for Public Opinion Research (CPOR) highlights a lack of clarity among voters about who will become San Antonio’s next mayor. About 35% of voters are undecided and 20% are unfamiliar with any of the 27 candidates running to replace Ron Nirenberg in the May 3, 2025 election.

However, the survey also identified seven candidates who are leading the field, each securing more than 3% of voter support. In the lead are Gina Ortiz Jones with just over 9%, John Courage with close to 8% and Manny Pelaez with more than 5%.

Support ranging from 3% to just under 4% is held by Melissa Cabello Havrda, Beto Altamirano, Adriana Rocha Garcia and Clayton Perry. Apart from Tim Westley who earned 1.6%, the other 19 candidates each drew less than 1%.

“With a majority of voters undecided, the mayor's race is still wide open,” said Bryan Gervais, 世界杯官方app associate professor of political science and CPOR director. “Familiarity with candidates is low, and so a lot of it will come down to which candidates are able to raise their profile and name recognition over the next several months. It could very well be the case that other candidates outside of the group of seven are able to build their profiles and join or surpass members of this group.”

The February CPOR poll queried 683 San Antonio likely voters to gain their thoughts and opinions about the upcoming mayoral race. CPOR also asked the likely voters about downtown redevelopment, VIA’s Rapid Green Line, crime and safety, and trust in all levels of government. The poll was administered in English and Spanish and has a margin of error of +/- 3.8%.

Key Highlights

• More than 35% of voters do not know how they’ll vote, and more than 20% said they are unfamiliar with any of the candidates running for San Antonio mayor. However, there is evidence of a top tier of candidates among the 27 candidates looking to succeed Nirenberg. Also, one percent of voters surveyed indicated they would vote for someone other than the 27 candidates on the ballot.
  
  
• Project Marvel received tepid support from voters. About 41% stated the City of San Antonio and Bexar County should move forward with plans to redevelop a portion of Hemisfair into a sports and entertainment district with 36% against moving forward. Twenty percent of voters were not sure and 3% had no opinion.
  
  
• Using a Bexar County venue tax to pay for a new Spurs arena had a slight edge amongst voters. Regardless of voters’ overall position on Project Marvel, 42% indicated they would vote in favor of using a venue tax to fund some of the cost of a new arena, with 41% against, and 15% unsure.
  
  
• Public support of a San Antonio Missions minor league baseball stadium north of downtown showed little change from CPOR’s September 2024 poll. About 41% are in favor of the stadium plan with 35% opposed and about 20% unsure.
  
  
• VIA’s Rapid Green Line project drew little opposition from voters. Half of voters stated they were in support of the plan, which would construct a rapid transit line running from the San Antonio Airport to the Mission Reach. Twenty-five percent were opposed to the plan, 22% were not sure and 3% reported having no opinion.
  
  
• About 85% of voters reported that neither they nor anyone in their household has recently been a victim of crime – including robbery, assault, fraud or other types of crime – in the past 12 months. Fourteen percent reported that they or someone in their household had been victimized with 1% stating they were unsure. CPOR’s inaugural November 2024 Bexar County Voter Panel Study revealed voters cited crime (15%) as the top concerning issue facing the county followed by homelessness (9%) and affordable housing (9%).
  
  
• Similar to previous CPOR surveys, voters were more positive about the direction San Antonio is moving in as opposed to the direction of the state and country. Fifty percent believe San Antonio is headed in the right direction with the majority believing the state (56%) and country (60%) were moving in the wrong direction.            

Established in 2023, CPOR is a nationally accredited, academic public opinion research center that produces and facilitates basic and applied opinion research to broaden the shared understanding of important political and governance issues. The center is certified by the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR)’s Transparency Initiative. AAPOR is an organization comprised of public opinion and survey research professionals in the U.S., with members from academia, media, government, the non-profit sector and private industry. As a member of AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative, CPOR practices transparency in reporting its survey-based research findings.

Survey Methodology

Stratified registration-based sampling (RBS) was used to select the sample. Registered voters with verified email addresses and residential addresses in the City of San Antonio were stratified into three categories, based on personal vote history in prior San Antonio mayoral elections: voters, abstainers, and new registrants with no vote history.

Estimates of the rates at which each of the three strata were expected to vote in the May 2025 election were then produced based on an analysis of previous San Antonio mayoral elections: the rates at which 2017 voters, abstainers, and new registrants voted in the 2019 election were calculated, as were the rates for these groups in the 2021 and 2023 elections. Weighted average turnout rates for each of the groups were then used as the benchmark voting rates for the May 2025 election.

The number of registered voters in each stratum was then multiplied by the estimated voting rates to produce the fraction of the sample each stratum should make up. After the survey was conducted, data were weighted by these strata fractions and self-reported likelihood of voting in the May 2025 municipal election. Individuals who indicated they were unlikely to vote at all were disqualified from the survey.

— Michelle Gaitan